The Underground Man

It's all about leverage..

I'm filing this under the 2004 Election topic though it's not so much a commentary on the election (or the Republican convention) but rather a statement of intent.

I've been giving some thought to how I can make a difference in volunteering for Kerry. I'm not a phone guy (don't like cold calls and such) and so, following the model of MoveOn.org, I'm am going to try and organize a fund-raising event.

With the kind help of friends (whom I hope to convince to loan me their house for the evening) we will hold a fund-raising potluck/barbecue. Every person attending will be asked to contribute a minimum of $50 and they will be able to indicate how they want the funds split (between Moveon and the Kerry campaign directly).

I'll put Outfoxed on one TV and Fahrenheit 9/11 on the other and maybe even loop some of the best Moveon.org advertisements on a third (just to keep the passion flowing).

I got this email from MoveOn yesterday. Quite interesting if it can be believed:

Here's why the hype that Bush is winning doesn't stand up to scrutiny:

Nation-wide polls don't matter. This election will be decided in the 20 or so states that aren't firmly in Bush's camp. So while most national polls--which include voters in Texas and California--show a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, polls of the so-called "battleground states" tell a different story. A bipartisan poll from NPR1 has Kerry leading 52-43% in these states, and Fox News2 reports a 47-37% Kerry lead there.

Historically speaking, Bush is in a very weak position. Most experts agree that when a president is seeking re-election, most voters first decide whether he deserves re-election, and then look at the challenger. And most voters aren't liking what they see: Bush's approval rating is very low for an incumbent. Even more importantly, in some recent polls a large portion of voters say the country is on the wrong track, a benchmark that is extremely tough to recover from. Bush is not where he needs to be, and even a significant bounce won’t put him there.

In the swing states, the name of the game is turnout. There are literally millions of people who prefer Kerry to Bush but who are unlikely to vote at all. In fact, there are far more of these folks than there are "swing voters" who haven’t made up their minds yet. Experts on both sides agree that the winner on November 2 will be the candidate who gets his base out in the places where it matters. And it's pretty straightforward to get their attention: we'll call them on the phone, knock on their doors, and invite them to neighborhood house parties. We'll listen to their concerns and talk to them about both candidates' positions on the issues. And we'll remind them repeatedly to show up on Election Day.

Posted by artandscience at September 2, 2004 10:11 AM